Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 1.120636 1.181286 1.244081 1.314084 1.390100 1.470324 1.561617
2026-01-04 1.019922 1.104986 1.196755 1.303624 1.425305 1.560312 1.722517
2026-01-11 0.967991 1.069097 1.181408 1.316425 1.475695 1.659335 1.889670
2026-01-18 0.922826 1.034557 1.161544 1.318128 1.508239 1.734563 2.029049
2026-01-25 0.898366 1.020744 1.162744 1.341972 1.565519 1.839887 2.209897
2026-02-01 0.852422 0.978107 1.126190 1.316377 1.558482 1.862686 2.284633
2026-02-08 0.806724 0.933110 1.083891 1.280352 1.534748 1.860815 2.324173
2026-02-15 0.777332 0.906388 1.062315 1.268486 1.540194 1.895760 2.414178
2026-02-22 0.756443 0.889012 1.051182 1.268755 1.560591 1.950629 2.534567
2026-03-01 0.728807 0.861920 1.026380 1.249629 1.553401 1.966492 2.598770
2026-03-08 0.696920 0.828249 0.991768 1.215800 1.524124 1.949268 2.611764
2026-03-15 0.679143 0.811916 0.978798 1.210032 1.532761 1.985518 2.707142
2026-03-22 0.668041 0.804440 0.977872 1.221558 1.567663 2.063909 2.878062
2026-03-29 0.649142 0.786203 0.962095 1.212036 1.572112 2.097741 2.981245
2026-04-05 0.639597 0.779807 0.961675 1.223519 1.607111 2.179158 3.169267
2026-04-12 0.627032 0.768884 0.954594 1.225047 1.627137 2.238299 3.324585
2026-04-19 0.622368 0.768279 0.961384 1.246424 1.677700 2.348434 3.580061
2026-04-26 0.602597 0.746608 0.938339 1.223476 1.659151 2.345567 3.629767
2026-05-03 0.580640 0.721389 0.909620 1.191139 1.624500 2.314071 3.622922
2026-05-10 0.567036 0.707246 0.895957 1.180477 1.623163 2.337730 3.722905
2026-05-17 0.557699 0.698694 0.889846 1.180719 1.638897 2.390888 3.885277
2026-05-24 0.543216 0.682635 0.872599 1.163523 1.625738 2.393303 3.945901
2026-05-31 0.525155 0.661201 0.847152 1.133076 1.589816 2.353945 3.917195